The future of Atlantic hurricane tracks » Yale Climate Connections

yaleclimateconnections.org

A look at what we know and don’t yet know about how climate change could affect the paths of these storms — and the all-important question of how often they’ll make landfall.

As hurricane season ends, researchers take stock of unexpected pattern

What surprised researchers was the bizarre way the season played out. It got off to a roaring start when Hurricane Beryl became the first Category 5 storm seen in the Atlantic Ocean in June. But from mid-August through early September, all went quiet.

Hurricane Helene Couldn’t Stop Birders From Using eBird

WIRED

Last week, Hurricane Helene spun north into western North Carolina causing catastrophic damage, particularly in the Asheville area and surrounding counties. Entire homes and businesses were flooded, some floating away in a horrific wave of debris.

Riders on the Storm

Cruising World

Ray Pentrack quipped as I passed him in the Cruz Bay grocery store. He was the manager at Cruz Bay Marina on St. John in the US Virgin Islands. I had just flown in from Maine, looking ­forward to a few weeks on my boat before hauling out for ­hurricane season.  “Hurricane Hugo,” Ray said.

Surviving the Storm: A Sailor’s Tale of Hurricane Lee

Cruising World

It was, in fact, dark and stormy on that night in September 2023. The sunset had been extraordinary, shining orange and pink on breakers pounding the headland of Great Wass Island in Beals, Maine.

A new era in hurricane tracking begins

Yale Climate Connections

It was no normal mission. Many of the Hurricane Hunters on the flight were seasoned, accustomed to taking on the world’s most powerful storms. Some had notched hundreds of hurricane eyewall penetrations – badges of honor coined eyewall “pennies.”

Why Tropical Cyclone Size Matters: A Comparison of Hurricanes Charley (2004) & Ian (2022)

Inside the Eye

In 2004 and 2022, southwest Florida was hit by devastating category 4 hurricanes. The eyes of Charley and Ian made landfall within a few miles of one another, with sustained winds up to 150 mph in both hurricanes.

What Happens to Animals in The Ocean During a Hurricane?

ScienceAlert

When strong hurricanes hit land, the uprooted trees, destroyed homes, and other devastation are highly visible. What happens in the marine environments where they churn water and disrupt sediment isn't always as obvious.

This Hurricane Season Depends on a Showdown in the Atlantic

WIRED

Like a massive, watery battery, the Atlantic Ocean powers hurricanes. As the ocean warms throughout the summer, it sends moisture into the atmosphere—heat energy that combines with wind to spin up storms. 

Storm-Chasing Seabirds Ride Out Hurricanes from Inside

Scientific American

Like big-wave surfers or daring meteorologists, shearwaters in the Sea of Japan deliberately head toward powerful (and dangerous) storms. When hurricanes strike, most birds either evacuate or take shelter. After all, these storms can cause massive avian mortality.

The bizarre and destructive 2022 hurricane season ends

Yale Climate Connections

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season draws to an official close on November 30, after generating 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 95. Those numbers compare with the 1991-2020 averages for an entire season of 14.4 named storms, 7.

We’ve reached the end of a bizarre Atlantic hurricane season

Ars Technica

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on Wednesday, bringing to a close the six-month period when the vast majority of tropical activity occurs in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Prior to the season, forecasters generally expected a busier-than-normal season.

The Precarious Future of Sanibel Island

The New Yorker

Sanibel Island is twelve miles long, three miles at its widest, and peaks around four feet above sea level. It’s a barrier island, which is to say that it sits entirely on shifting sands, three miles off the coast of southwest Florida.

Building a better hurricane ‘cone of uncertainty’

Yale Climate Connections

The now widely familiar “cone of uncertainty” for hurricanes in some ways is a victim of its own success.   Introduced in 2002, the cone was innovative in its day.

Surviving Hurricane Ian in a Fort Myers Apartment Complex

The New Yorker

Adam Rayhart is a flair bartender at a cocktail spot in downtown Fort Myers, Florida, the largest town on a seven-mile island that sits on the Gulf of Mexico. He moved there last year from Lehigh Acres, sixteen miles inland.

Studying hurricanes at sea to save lives on shore

Yale Climate Connections

NOAA oceanographer Greg Foltz knew it was going to be a long night last fall when he saw Hurricane Sam‘s trajectory.

Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes: Never mind La Niña

Yale Climate Connections

A disorganized tropical disturbance called Invest 97L is crossing the tropical Atlantic this week, but with only meager odds of becoming a named storm.

Back to the Island

This morning I am up at dawn, kayak­ing down Hewletts Creek out to Masonboro Island to survey the damage. Homo sapiens were not the only animals to lose their homes when Hurricane Florence hit. Already I have seen that the live oak that held the osprey nest near the creek’s mouth is down.

What if the Mid-Atlantic’s worst nor’easter on record struck today?

Yale Climate Connections

Non-tropical winter storms can lash the U.S. East Coast just as destructively as a major hurricane might.

‘Quite a ride!’: Hurricane Hunter Jack Parrish retires after 42 years

Yale Climate Connections

During a remarkable hurricane hunting career spanning 42 years, over 80 hurricanes, and 659 penetrations into hurricane eyes, NOAA meteorologist Jack Parrish retires this week. Perhaps no other meteorologist alive has seen more exceptional weather and worked with more top weather scientists than Mr.